Zachary Cohen dives into a first-round meeting between Indiana and Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff on Friday, December 20th.Indiana Hoosiers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish:
The first game of the entire College Football Playoff kicks off at 8:00 pm ET on Friday, December 20th. It’ll feature the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish hosting the No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers at Notre Dame Stadium. The winner of this game will take on the Georgia Bulldogs in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.College Football Playoff: Indiana Hoosiers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7.5, 51.5)
Friday, December 20th, 8:00 p.m. ETIndiana head coach Curt Cignetti likes the fact that his Hoosiers have been doubted all season. He relishes the “little guy” role, despite the fact that he himself is brash, confident and assertive. Cignetti is surely loving the fact that Indiana will have a chance to spoil Notre Dame’s season. These schools are roughly 200 miles away from one another, and the Fighting Irish have one of the biggest brands in college sports. So, Indiana can really make some noise by knocking off an in-state rival. That adds a little extra intrigue to this matchup.
This will be a strength versus strength showdown. Kurtis Rourke leads a Hoosiers offense that is fourth in the nation in Dropback EPA per play (0.139), and the senior is coming off a regular season in which he threw for 2,827 yards with 27 touchdowns and only four interceptions. However, Rourke was just 8 for 18 for 68 yards in Indiana’s 38-15 loss to Ohio State on November 23rd. That was really the only time this season in which the Hoosiers had to face elite competition, and Rourke failed the test. And while the Buckeyes are third in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.164), the Fighting Irish are first in that regard (-0.172). Will Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan (not that one) find a way to get Rourke and the offensive line ready for another top-notch passing defense? That will ultimately decide whether or not we get another chapter in this surprising Indiana story. I don’t have a lot of faith in the running game getting going against the Notre Dame defensive front.
Of course, it is fair to wonder whether this Fighting Irish defense is as good as it looks. Notre Dame didn’t exactly play the most daunting schedule, and the team allowed USC quarterback Jayden Maiava to throw for 360 yards and three touchdowns in the final game of the regular season. But for what it’s worth, Maiava is more talented than Rourke, and the Trojans have high-level talent at the skill positions. Notre Dame won’t have to deal with that against Indiana. The Hoosiers’ best asset is a coaching staff that consistently has its guys ready to go. But one would think that Marcus Freeman, one of the best defensive minds in the nation, will have his defense ready to play as well.
As far as the other side of the ball goes, Notre Dame runs a little hot and cold. However, Riley Leonard is a big, dual-threat quarterback that can make plays all over the field, and Indiana hasn’t had to deal with anything like him this year. His ability to make plays with his legs will be tough for the Hoosiers to handle in what should be a cold-weather game. He’s tough to bring down on a good day.
For those looking at the total, keep in mind that, in terms of EPA per play, this is the nation’s fourth-best defense going up against the 17th-best defense. Also, Indiana ran on 56.3% of its offensive plays this season, and Notre Dame wasn’t too far behind at 55.7%. These aren’t teams that are looking to throw 30 or more passes.
I’ll personally be looking Under here. I don’t think either one of these teams wants to get into a shootout, and there’s a really good chance we see some snow. Whoever wins this one will have to grind it out.
Pick: Under 51.5 (-110)
